In the much-anticipated by-election, TVK has secured both the Madurantakam and Dharapuram constituencies.
TVK led from the very beginning in the Madurantakam constituency, while in the closely watched Dharapuram seat there were some interesting twists, with TVK initially leading and then AIADMK taking the lead. From the fifth round onward, TVK began to regain a steady lead. The vote margin also increased significantly. After that, in the intense race for second place, DMK pushed AIADMK back.
At this point, let us briefly look at what the by-election results in Madurantakam and Dharapuram, won by TVK, are saying.
The by-elections in Madurantakam and Dharapuram drew unprecedented attention in Tamil Nadu. The reason was that the AIADMK had won these constituencies in the Assembly election. In Madurantakam, Maragatham Kumaravel, and in Dharapuram, Sathya Bama, contested and won on behalf of the AIADMK.
Even so, they resigned their MLA posts and, just as quickly, joined the TVK. As a result, those constituencies were declared vacant. Despite all the criticism of horse-trading and betrayal, they were announced as TVK candidates as well.
A five-way contest emerged in both constituencies, with TVK, DMK, AIADMK, NTK, and the Left parties in the fray.
This by-election was an imposed election. Remarks such as “TVK is the result of horse-trading” were raised by all parties opposed to TVK.
However, despite all those criticisms, TVK fielded the same candidates in both constituencies. TVK entrusted the Madurantakam election responsibility to Minister Aadhav Arjuna. He campaigned there with a whirlwind tour and, from the very beginning, vowed, “If we do not win in Madurantakam by a margin of 1 lakh votes, I will resign from the post of general secretary.”
It was said that the by-election result would change because only party-switchers were fielded as candidates; because the Left was contesting the by-election while continuing to support the TVK; because of the power-cut issue; because of the dissatisfaction that has arisen over TVK rule; because Dharapuram is an AIADMK stronghold; and finally because of the video of TVK candidate Sathyabama released on election day.
However, the by-election results have once again dashed all those expectations. Political experts are listing a few reasons for this.
It has only been 5 months since the TVK government came to power. In one sense, this can be viewed as the people who voted for change still being willing to give TVK time to deliver it. It is also said that, as is usually the case, by-elections tend to favor the ruling party. That general rule is said to apply here as well.
Beyond that, TVK’s effort is noteworthy. It is pointed out that TVK accurately assessed the public’s anti-incumbency mood and criticisms, and intensified Chief Minister Vijay’s campaign in both constituencies.
While there was talk that the ground situation could change, Chief Minister Vijay carried out an extensive campaign in both constituencies. Though both are small towns in size, he campaigned all the way into the villages. His stunts, such as driving a tractor and a bullock cart, were mocked. Even so, as he always says, Vijay and his TVK faced the election with confidence.
It is in this situation that the ruling TVK has continued to lead and has secured both the Madurantakam and Dharapuram constituencies.
PMK’s stance of not supporting anyone in this election, along with the discussions about whether Anbumani is leaning toward TVK, have worked in TVK’s favor.
However, what needs to be noted in this by-election result is the margin of votes.
The vote lead trend in the Dharapuram constituency was interesting from the very beginning. First TVK led... then AIADMK led, and at one point it showed AIADMK in the lead. Later, when TVK again moved into the lead, a neck-and-neck contest emerged with AIADMK. After that, DMK moved up to second place.
Some political critics point out that this vote-count margin being around 25,000 or 10,000 clearly indicates dissatisfaction with the ruling TVK.
They say that if the admiration for TVK that existed before the Tamil Nadu Assembly election were still there, leading trends with a huge vote margin would have started coming in from 11 a.m. itself.
They cite as evidence the fact that in Puducherry’s Thattanchavady, the NR Congress candidate has now won with more votes than Rangasamy received last time.
Moreover, people have not completely abandoned their admiration for the Dravidian parties. Some say this election shows that people have not accepted the idea that the AIADMK is a spent force.
Likewise, some political analysts say that in a situation where the TVK has established itself with formidable strength, the opposition parties should have fielded a common candidate by now.
Because the DMK, which had been contesting elections with a strong alliance until the last election, has now faced this election almost on its own. That alliance now includes only the DMDK and a few smaller parties.
In the AIADMK alliance too, only the BJP is included. G.K. Vasan, who had been on friendly terms with the AIADMK and BJP for many years, has also announced that he will support TVK in this election. Based on the count of parties, in the current situation, the TVK alliance is the stronger one.
As usual, NTK drew enough votes in this by-election to show its presence, while the Left parties’ vote count was so low that it was a political disappointment.
Before this by-election, the total strength of the DMK was 107. The DMK government is functioning with the support of coalition partners: Congress with 5, VCK with 2, IUML with 2, and the Left parties with 5. Of these, the Left parties extend their support from outside. Because of this, they do not hesitate at all to criticize the DMK.
In this situation, if the DMK raises its MLA strength to 109 in this by-election, it would be a major advantage. There are still 5 constituencies vacant: Tiruchi East, Perundurai, Karur, Ambasamudram, and Viralimalai. The PMK is also ready to extend support to the DMK.
So far, the whistle kingdom VIPs, who have been lifting only the Leaf Party people by using their own men, are now reportedly casting their net toward the Sun Party as well. Insider information is spreading that their gaze has now turned toward the senior pioneer family holding a key position in the Sun Party.
So, although the magic numbers needed to retain the majority strength required for five years of rule have strengthened TVK’s confidence, political observers strongly say that the fact that the vote margin in both constituencies remained narrow even while it was the ruling party is a lesson the people have taught Chief Minister Vijay: if governance and administration disappoint them, voters will not hesitate to throw away the charm.
These results make it clear that this is important not only for TVK... but also for the DMK, which the party’s leader Vijay criticizes as an evil force, and for the AIADMK, which is criticized as a spent force, to rebuild themselves.