The U.S. Department of Labor has removed six IT companies—Cognizant, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro, HCL Technologies, and Capgemini—from the ‘Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) program’.
The PERM program is a scheme through which IT companies help their eligible foreign employees obtain green cards and permanent residency.
Many Indians go to the United States for work. On average, Indians account for 66 percent of those who receive H-1B visas each year.
The number of Indians applying for green cards is also significant.
So, this move by the US government will certainly affect Indians who go to the US for work.
HCL Technologies’ former vice president and chief executive officer, Vineet Nayar, posted about this move by the United States on his X page.
There is little cause for concern
In that post, “Trump wants to reduce the number of Indian technology professionals going to the United States.
But as an unintended consequence, there may be a situation where more of America’s tech jobs move toward India.
I have been working in this field for more than 30 years.
So when I read the news that the United States had prevented some leading technology companies from using the PERM process, I was less concerned than the headlines suggested (PERM is an important route for employees to obtain permanent residency).
Statistics
A single statistic will explain why.
Of the 117,849 PERMs issued last year, Indian IT companies accounted for fewer than 1,400. That is less than 2%. So the direct impact of this will be very limited.
But behind this, a very interesting different change is taking place.
Initially, the Indian IT industry’s work model was very simple. The client would have an important job in the United States. To do that, we would send Indian engineers there.
Then, we discovered that a large part of that work could be done from India itself. This is how the “onsite-offshore” model came into being.
I have personally experienced that historic shift.
The beginning of another transformation...
We may now be at the beginning of another such transformation.
At the same time that the U.S. government is making it harder for Indian talent to come to America, technology has made it much easier for small teams in India to take on highly sophisticated work.
There is an interesting irony in this.
As the United States seeks to reduce the entry of Indian talent into America, that very effort could accelerate the movement of American jobs to India.
But I am not saying this is merely the next wave of routine coding and maintenance work.
The biggest opportunity before us is to take control of architecture, product engineering, cybersecurity, the application of artificial intelligence, enterprise solutions, and ultimately products and intellectual property.
India must move on to the next stage...
Indian teams should not be merely an organization that implements directives coming from New York. They should also take part in deciding what should be created.
Rather than stopping at maintaining the technological platform of an international bank, they should help reshape the bank’s very structure.
We must not stop at sending engineers to solve someone else’s problem; we must take full responsibility for that problem ourselves.
There is also an uncomfortable truth in this.
For the past thirty years, the growth of India’s IT sector and the growth of IT jobs in India have moved together.
Getting more business opportunities and hiring more engineers happened at the same time.
As artificial intelligence technology increases productivity, this connection may weaken.
Without increasing the number of people at the same rate, the Indian IT sector can take on more advanced work and create additional value.
So, we need a new definition of success.
The next 30 years...
For the past thirty years, India’s IT sector has mainly competed by relying on the low cost of Indian talent.
But the next thirty years will depend on the capabilities of Indian talent.
Can we create not just programmers, but “architects”? Can we create products and intellectual property here itself?
Can global decision-making power be shifted to India? Can we increase per-person productivity and thereby pay our employees much better wages?
These are far more important, bigger questions than how many visas the United States issues.
So, do not worry about the visa-related headlines.
Trump may make it harder for Indian engineers to go to jobs in the United States.
“But the opportunity before us is to make American jobs come looking for Indian engineers,” said Vineet Nayar.