The by-election results in Dharapuram and Madurantakam have once again caused a storm within the AIADMK. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi Palaniswami has squandered even the last chance he had to retain his authority. As a result, the Velumani & C.V. Shanmugam team is preparing to revive the operation it launched in May.
Through this, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Joseph Vijay has once again succeeded in the plan to take over the AIADMK while opposing the DMK.
For the past three decades, the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, which had been functioning only as an opposition party, was pushed to third place with 47 seats in the recently concluded Assembly general election. Subsequently, SP Velumani, CV Shanmugam, and others put forward a request to Edappadi Palaniswami, suggesting that they could support the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, which was struggling to secure a majority with 107 seats, and participate in the cabinet.
When he refused to agree to that, they emerged as a separate faction with more than 30 MLAs. They supported the T.V.K. government, and discussions were also held about participating in the cabinet. But when that plan was abandoned due to legal complications, they rejoined Edappadi Palaniswami’s side to retain their MLA positions.
Even so, because their stripped responsibilities were not restored and their importance within the party was reduced, they would occasionally rebel by writing letters against Edappadi Palaniswami. At that time, Edappadi Palaniswami was delighted when by-elections were announced in Dharapuram and Madurantakam.
He also calculated that winning just one of the two, especially winning again in Dharapuram, would be enough to save the sinking party. But being pushed to third place in both constituencies has once again called Edappadi Palaniswami’s leadership into question.
It is true that one cannot judge a person’s leadership qualities based on the results of two by-elections. But political analysts say that if one understands the basics of the Dharapuram and Madurantakam constituencies, it is not something we can easily dismiss.
`` Since the AIADMK party was founded, in the 12 general elections held, AIADMK has won in Madurantakam seven times. Even when AIADMK was split into the Jaya and Janaki factions in 1989, Madurantakam was a constituency full of voters who supported the winning AIADMK. In the 2021 election, while DMK won 36 of the 37 constituencies in the Chennai region, AIADMK won only in Madurantakam.
In the 2026 election, Maragatham won amid the ruling party’s formidable alliance strength and the image of Vijay. But now it has slipped to third place with just 47,000 votes.
Even if we take Dharapuram as it is, in the 12 elections held after 1977, the A.D.M.K. has won 7 times. Moreover, 1977 was the first general election faced by M.G.R. after founding the A.D.M.K. party.
But even before that, it had already contested in the Dindigul parliamentary constituency and the Coimbatore West विधानसभा constituency by-elections under the double-leaf symbol and recorded a huge victory.
The campaign that M.G.R.’s symbol was the two leaves was carried out very intensely throughout Tamil Nadu. However, only in the Dharapuram constituency was the lion the symbol blessed by M.G.R. The reason was that M.G.R. first announced a man named Ayyasamy as the candidate for that constituency and later replaced him with Alangiyam Balakrishnan.
But since Form A and Form B were sent to him first, he used them to file his nomination and ended up getting the two leaves symbol. Alangiyam Balakrishnan got only the lion symbol.
When M.G.R. heard about this, he ordered Ayyasamy not to go out campaigning. He left the constituency altogether. M.G.R. campaigned only for the lion symbol. But Balakrishnan, whom M.G.R. supported, came only in third place. That is how much the people living in that constituency are devoted to the double-leaf symbol. But in the 2026 election, they have received nearly 35,000 fewer votes than before. They say this is not a minor slip.
Chief Minister Vijay did not handle this two-constituency by-election the way he would handle the 2026 general election. The intense campaign he carried out over four days has paid off for him on a massive scale. Not only that, but his slogan projecting himself as the heir to M.G.R. and Jayalalithaa has also succeeded. Political analysts speaking about this say,
``The reason the A.I.A.D.M.K. came third in the Dharapuram and Madurantakam constituencies is not just the P.M.K. withdrawing its support, poor planning, and internal sabotage. Beyond that, the loyalists of M.G.R. and Jayalalithaa, and admirers of the twin-leaf symbol, have begun to see Chief Minister Vijay and the whistle symbol as their ideal.
The clearest sign of that is that in both constituencies, it was mostly AIADMK votes that went to the TVK. In Madurantakam, Maragatham Kumaravel’s fieldwork, and in Dharapuram, the election work done by those who came over from the AIADMK, were also factors. But beyond that, AIADMK voters have begun to feel that it is the TVK alone that has the strength to defeat the DMK and win.
They have lost confidence in Edappadi Palaniswami. If AIADMK functionaries moving to TVK would disrupt its structure, then the movement of cadres and voters would shake its very foundation. That has already happened in the southern districts. It has now happened in the Kongu region as well, calling Edappadi Palaniswami’s leadership into question,” they say.
As soon as the election results were announced, Velumani & team openly began preparing for their next moves. As a first step, they have been holding consultations at Velumani’s residence for the past three days. “Soon, they are planning to support T.V.K. with two-thirds of the MLAs,” say those aware of the details.
``For Edappadi Palaniswami, these election results may have become clear only on October 9. But S.P. Velumani and C.V. Shanmugam knew even earlier. Their side’s people in the field kept updating the situation from time to time. They also worked against the A.I.A.D.M.K.
During the election period, Velumani himself sent many AIADMK functionaries to the TVK. Not only that, but even before the election results were announced, they had already begun talks by contacting several MLAs. While it is already being said that they have the support of 19 MLAs, they are also trying to woo the MLAs on Edappadi Palaniswami’s side.
If they get the support of two-thirds, that is, 28 MLAs, they will begin the next phase of work. First, they will insist on convening the general council. They have already begun working to strengthen the slogans put forward by the TVK leader and other top functionaries, such as “AIADMK and TVK are not different, the twin leaves and the whistle are not different,” they say.
Before the 2026 Legislative Assembly general election, T.V.K. faced the election by putting forward the strategy of D.M.K. versus T.V.K. With a huge victory in that, and thinking about their future, six A.I.A.D.M.K. MLAs resigned their posts and took refuge in T.V.K.
A huge group of former ministers and senior functionaries began leaving one after another. But Edappadi Palaniswami & team boasted that the cadres and voters who admire M.G.R. and Jayalalithaa were with them. The by-election results in Dharapuram and Madurantakam have shattered that image to pieces.
We’ll have to wait and see how Edappadi Palaniswami is going to prevent the AIADMK from now melting into the TVK.
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