There is anticipation over whether Lionel Messi (39 years old) will receive the Golden Ball award he missed out on at the World Cup through the Ballon d'Or award. He has been nominated for this award for the 17th time.
To win this award, Messi has only a few competitors who have played for both the Spain national team and the PSG club team. What are the possibilities of whether Messi will get this award or not? Let’s take a look here.
The Ballon d'Or award is presented on behalf of the monthly magazine “France Football,” which is published exclusively for football in France. This French term can be translated into Tamil as “golden ball.”
Considered the most prestigious award in the world of football, Lionel Messi alone has dominated it so far by winning it the most times (8 times).
Who is this award given to? How are they selected?
First, the player must have performed exceptionally as an individual and made a major impact on the team. Second, he must have helped his team or club win the maximum number of trophies in that season. Finally, the award is given based on three factors: the player’s conduct and sportsmanship.
To select this award, one journalist from each of the top 100 countries in the FIFA rankings, that is, 100 people, will cast their votes. Accordingly, the award is given to the player who receives the highest number of points.
Generally, this Ballon d'Or award had been given only to players in European countries. That is why legends like Pelé and Maradona never received this award. This rule was in place from 1956 to 1994.
During the period from 1995 to 2006, it was changed so that anyone, regardless of nationality, could win this award if they played for a European club.
In this sequence, in 1995, Liberia's George Weah became the first non-European to win this award. Messi also went on to win it later in the 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021, and 2023 seasons.
Next, from 2006 onward, it was changed so that anyone playing for a club in any country other than a European club would be eligible for this award. However, the sad fact remains that no player has won this award so far!
Messi last won this award in 2023. At that time, he moved from PSG to Inter Miami in the MLS league held in the United States. However, it is worth noting that the award that time was given for his performances for the PSG team.
Even though Messi played excellently in the 2024 and 2025 seasons, his name did not even appear on this list of 30 contenders. Now, his inclusion is being praised as an innovative move. Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha, who drew attention at the World Cup, being selected to compete in the Best Goalkeeper category this time has truly inspired confidence in this award. In the future, Indians may also have a chance to win this award.
First factor: his uniqueness and influence
Among these 30 players, 14 are forwards, 9 are defenders, and 7 are midfielders. By breaking down who stands out in each category, it is easy to identify who has the best chance.
Forwards: Ousmane Dembélé (PSG, France), Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich, Colombia), Erling Haaland (Manchester City / Norway), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich / England), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG / Georgia), Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain), Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan / Argentina), Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid / France), Lionel Messi (Inter Miami / Argentina), Michael Olise (Bayern Munich / France), Julián Quiñones (Al-Qadsiah / Mexico), Ferran / Torres (Barcelona, PSG / Spain).
Midfielders: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid / England), Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United / Portugal), João Neves (PSG / Portugal), Pedri (Barcelona / Spain), Rodri (Manchester City / Spain), Vitinha (PSG / Portugal), Warren Zaïre-Emery (PSG / France).
Defender: Pau Cubarsí (Barcelona / Spain), Marc Cucurella (Chelsea, Real Madrid / Spain), Gabriel (Arsenal / Brazil), Achraf Hakimi (PSG / Morocco), Marquinhos (PSG / Brazil), Nuno Mendes (PSG / Portugal), Willian Pacho (PSG / Ecuador), Upamecano (Bayern Munich / France)
It is surprising that 10 players who play for PSG alone have been selected. Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Real Madrid each have four players selected, while Arsenal has the highest number with three.
Who is the best forward player?
Lionel Messi: 29 goals, 23 assists (Inter Miami); including 13 goals and 7 assists for the national team, he has contributed a total of 72 goal involvements with 42 goals and 30 assists.
Harry Kane: He has impressed with a total of 81 goal involvements, with 73 goals and 8 assists.
Erling Haaland: He has contributed a total of 70 goal involvements, with 58 goals and 12 assists.
Kylian Mbappé: He has contributed a total of 64 goal involvements, with 54 goals and 10 assists.
Lamine Yamal has contributed a total of 45 goals, with 25 goals and 20 assists. Ferran Torres and Lautaro Martínez are all slightly behind in this ranking.
In terms of numbers, England’s Harry Kane is ahead of Messi as the better forward. However, it is noteworthy that Messi’s impact at Inter Miami is great enough to win trophies.
Among the best defenders, Nuno Mendes, Pau Cubarsí, Gabriel, and Hakimi are in the lead. But because he won La Liga and the World Cup, it goes to Cubarsí.
Among the best midfielders, Jude Bellingham, Rodri, Pedri, Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, and Bruno are all among the leading contenders. However, because Portugal faltered in the World Cup and failed to advance to the quarterfinals, while Spain won the tournament, Rodri, Pedri, and Fabian Ruiz are ahead in this race.
Second factor: the trophies the team won and their contributions
If we ask who among the 30 players has the best chance of being named the best player, it is those who were part of the team that won the World Cup. Among these five, it is interesting that four have not won the Champions League, which adds to the intrigue.
Only one player makes it onto the list of those who have won all the trophies. He is PSG club and Spain midfielder Fabian Ruiz. However, many players in that team have performed better than his contribution, so his chances of winning the award are quite low.
The Champions League is the biggest trophy on the European continent. In Spain, La Liga; in England, the Premier League; in France, Ligue 1; in Italy, Serie A; and in Germany, the Bundesliga are the important competitions. Teams from these five countries compete in the Champions League. PSG were the last team to win it. None of the players in the PSG squad have won the World Cup. So, to determine who has the best chance, more research is needed.
Among these 30 players, Messi, Rodri, Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsí, and Dembélé are leading the way. Since Real Madrid have not even won the La Liga title, Mbappé and Bellingham will be absent from this competition.
Rodri, who impressed at the World Cup, played for Manchester City. His team did not win the Premier League; it did not win the Champions League either. (When he won the Ballon d'Or in 2023, that team had won both.) In contrast, Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsí, and Ferran Torres won the La Liga title; however, they did not win the Champions League. This has created a situation in which no definite conclusion can be drawn.
Lionel Messi helped Inter Miami win the Eastern Conference League and the MLS series for the first time. He also shone as the star of the series. Not only that, he is also one of the players with the most Man of the Match awards at the 2026 World Cup. He single-handedly carried the team all the way to the final.
He leads in everything, including most goals and most assists. He was the only one who created the last two or three chances in the final. He is ahead of Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, and Mbappé in this as well.
In the World Cup, Messi finished second in the creativity and skill in play category. Michael Olise took first place. It is noteworthy that Messi missed out by just 0.03 points.
The only reason Rodri received the Ballon d'Or while Messi did not was that the final was won by the winner and the loser. Otherwise, Rodri missed 11 club matches due to injury. Messi achieved various records in club football.
Third factor: Good conduct and a spirit of fair play
Defenders are usually the ones who commit the most fouls. So the other players tend to score higher in this category.
The management has said that they also take into account how he is off the field, not just on it. It is noteworthy that none of those involved have been caught up in any controversy.
Stanley Matthews won this award in 1956 at the age of 41. After that, Messi won it in 2023 at the age of 36. If Messi wins this award now at the age of 39, he will further improve his record as the second-oldest player to win it.
Ronald Nazario won this award at a young age (at 21) in 1997. Only Spanish players Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsí can break this record. Among them, Pau Cubarsí has a better chance than Yamal. This is because he defended excellently while committing very few fouls. He has a greater chance of winning the Best Young Player award.
By club, PSG, Bayern Munich, Inter Miami, and Barcelona dominate. By national team, only Spain and Argentina are taken into account. The England players, who finished third, also have a chance to make it into the top 5. Overall, it will be a tough contest between Messi, Harry Kane, and Rodri.
Taking all the above factors into account, Messi alone is more likely to receive slightly higher marks. If he wins this Ballon d'Or, or Golden Ball award, after his international retirement, football fans believe it would do justice to his football journey, his hard work in competing with younger players even at the age of 39, and his unparalleled talent!